Abstract:
This paper performs a follow-up analysis of the Russian Anti-Satellite (ASAT) intercept test conducted November 15, 2021, launching an ASAT weapon system to intercept and destroy the on-orbit COMOS 1408, a defunct Soviet Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) satellite that was launched in 1982. The original analysis had estimated how the resulting debris from the fragmentation event would adversely impact spacecraft operators, their SSA knowledge, their ability to detect and mitigate high collision threat events, and their use of maneuvering fuel within a large constellation framework. This paper compares these original predictions of encounter rates, collision risk to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft (especially spacecraft in sun-synchronous orbits), and orbit lifetime estimates with actual conjunctions and orbit lifetimes detected by operational flight safety systems and services. Comparisons of actual fragmentation debris tracking with debris volume evolution in a continuum model and discrete breakup modeling are performed. Comparisons of our original predictions with what actually occurred identifies that original lifetime ASAT fragment orbit lifetime predictions were fairly close to what has been observed on-orbit to date, with predictions running approximately 25% longer than observed lifetimes to date. Flight safety and required avoidance maneuver predictions were also validated by observed conjunction trends, with as much as 20% reductions in flight safety and sustainability stemming from the Russian ASAT test at certain altitudes, and a doubling of collision risk for certain orbit conditions.
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Oltrogge, D.L., Alfano, S., and Hall, R., “Comparison of predicted and observed spacecraft encounters from Russian ASAT test,” AMOS 2022 Conference, Maui HI USA, 28 Sep 2022.
