Abstract:
This paper details the types of spacecraft fragmentation and subsequent debris cloud evolution models in use today, using the recent India ASAT intercept as a sample case to model the kinetic engagement, build representative scenarios of the resulting debris cloud, and further characterize the likelihood of a debris fragment being present anywhere in three-dimensional space as a function of time. From such characterizations, additional derived data may be obtained, in-cluding an assessment of the “top 25” active satellites placed at highest temporal risk of secondary collision with debris fragments, the orbital lifetime expected for the fragment population, and the subsequently-affected orbital regimes.
Keywords:
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Oltrogge, D.L., Kelso, T.S. and Carrico, T., “Characterizing the India ASAT Debris Evolution Using Diverse, Complementary Tools,” AAS 19-889, AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, Portland, ME, August 2019, accessible at https://comspoc.com/Resources/Content/Private/C-20220424T145243/Paper/20190810_India_ASAT_Debris_Evol_w_Diverse_Compl_Tools_Oltrogge_Carrico_Kelso_FINAL_PROOF_AAS%2019-889.pdf.
