Abstract:
In Low Earth Orbit (LEO), satellite operators typically assess the need for a collision avoidance maneuver based upon when one of their satellites is expected to come within 1 kilometre of another space object. In this paper, we compare normalized conjunction statistics extracted from the SOCRATES and Space Data Center historical conjunction assessment archives with a volumetric encounter algorithm characterization to explore historical trends and project future requirements for collision avoidance maneuvers.
Based upon these comparisons, we found that SDC and SOCRATES data indicate that in 2017, LEO spacecraft likely came within 1 kilometre of other objects an average of 2,000 times per month. Now, it’s closer to 4,000 average monthly conjunctions. For certain orbit regimes and satellite operators, conjunction alerts may be increasing even faster. In addition, the risk of fratricide encounter, were an event disruptive to satellite control on a large scale to occur, is experiencing dramatic growth as new large constellations become operational.
Keywords:
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Oltrogge, D.L., Alfano, S., Wilson, J. and Wauthier, P., “Evaluation of LEO conjunction rates using historical flight safety systems and analytical algorithms,” IAC-21-A6.7x65213, 72nd International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 25-29 October 2021, accessible at https://comspoc.com/Resources/Content/Private/C-20220422T122948/Paper/20211029_Eval_of_LEO_Conj_Rates_IAC_Dubai_FINAL.pdf..
