Abstract:
Our use of space is clearly at an inflection point, as the number of active spacecraft has increased fivefold since 2017. We are also experiencing a variety of other inflection points. Such inflection points in the space environment include a dramatic increase in the debris population, increased knowledge of the space population, particularly for smaller, Lethal Non-Trackable (LNT) debris, increasing awareness of the frequencies of collision risk and threat scenarios. Inflection points in SSA include the emergence of high-performance Space Situational Awareness (SSA) offered by commercial SSA data fusion, analytics, and data providers driven by new algorithms, sensor technologies, and deep collaboration with spacecraft operators. Inflection points on our use of space include increased national security reliance on space and related Space Domain Awareness (SDA) needs, emergence and enhancement of international standards and guidelines, publications of commercial best practices for space operations, evolutions of Space Traffic Management (STM) and Space Traffic Coordination (STC) concepts, increased commercialization of spacecraft operations, and This paper examines what these various inflection points are, when they are happening, how they interact with each other, and what the future may look like for SSA, SDA, STC, and STM. As we’ll illustrate in this paper, these inflection points are generally not well-timed, harmonized, or coordinated with respect to each other. Further examining the space population and close approach inflection points, we will also show how the number of encounters between a new spacecraft and the existing tracked population has increased dramatically in just the past 5 years. We then estimate how that encounter frequency will increase as we are able to sense and track smaller objects and will examine how the introduction of new large constellations is now dominating the encounter rate landscape in certain orbital regimes.
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Oltrogge, D.L., Alfano, S., Berry, D., Cooper, J., Vallado, D.A., and Kulu, E., “Contrasting the Inflection Points and Efforts in Space Traffic Coordination and Management,” IAA STM Conference, University of Texas at Austin, 27 February 2024.
